2015 may well be called Africa’s year of elections. At least 17 countries on the continent will go to the polls this year. These are either parliamentary or presidential elections or both. The number of electoral democracies mushroomed in Africa over the past 2 decades—a far cry from the days when incumbents would postpone elections for as long as it pleases them. But does the increase in electoral democracies in Africa correspondent with a wider space for civil liberties, accountability, transparency and respect for rule of law on the continent? The stakes appear not to be as high as some political observers want us to believe. Even though we should expect irregularities in some of the elections, the continent will pull through. Any disputes will be handled through African Union mediation and pressure from international development partners. The election in Zambia on Tuesday January 20th has marked the beginning of a flurry of elections in Africa that will last the whole year. Elections in Africa excite political observers. The highlights are expected to be: Nigeria, the Ivory Coast, Burkina Faso, Guinea, South Sudan and Burundi.
The October polls will be Ivory Coast’s first presidential election since the disputed polls of November 2010 which led to widespread violence and the eventual removal of the then president Laurent Gbagbo. The task will be to hold a free and fair election without a repeat of the post-election violence we saw in 2010/2011. For Burkina Faso, the polls scheduled for November will be the first since the overthrow of the country’s military dictator Blaise Compaore in a popular uprising in October last year. Burkina Faso has been mostly under military rule since gaining independence from France in 1960. The tens of thousands of Burkinabe, who thronged the streets of Ouagadougou to oust Mr. Compaore, will be watching closely to ensure that their revolution is not stolen at the polls.
The presidential election in Guinea will be the first since the election of president Alpha Conde in November 2010 which ended military rule in the West African country. Insecurity, a broken economy and the Ebola virus disease have posed great challenges to the leadership in Conakry. South Sudan, a country still mired in war and political impasse, will face a mountain of hurdles in its bid to hold general elections in July. Corruption, tribalism and nepotism coupled with political rivalry between President Salva Kiir and the then vice president (now rebel leader) Riek Machar, culminated in civil war in December 2013. Since then, war and food shortage have threatened the very existence of Africa’s youngest nation. The main challenge at the polls in July will be to conduct free and fair elections that will be accepted by the two archrivals— president Kiir and armed opposition figure Mr. Machar.
President Goodluck Jonathan of Nigeria has failed to rein in a violent extremist insurgency which threatens to not only end his political career, but also destabilize and eventually break up the Nigerian state. Jonathan has elbowed his neighbours and looked to foreign powers for help. He has found worthy but insufficient support in the United States, the United Kingdom and France which, together with other countries, have given military and security assistance to not only find Nigeria’s missing girls but also advise on how to defeat the Boko Haram insurgents. Their efforts have not produced any tangible results thus far. President Jonathan’s political survival will be at stake at the polls. Youth unemployment, economic inequality and Bokom Haram insurgency will be largely to blame if Jonathan is defeated at the polls. The election is a two-horse race pitching the incumbent Goodluck Jonathan of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) against the former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari of the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC). Whoever wins the election will inherit the twin evils– insecurity and corruption– which have been bedeviling Nigeria for a long time.
The nightmare for all stakeholders is the general elections in the Central African Republic slated for August, but with no date in sight—no surprise given the ongoing conflict in the country. The elections are a desperate attempt at turning around the country’s political crisis which is the root cause of the ongoing conflict. Any miscalculations in the elections would risk renewed tensions and escalation in conflict in the central African nation.
With the support of leaders of the East African sub-region, President Pierre Nkurunziza of Burundi is likely to have his way in his controversial bid for a term in office. The ambiguity of the 2005 Constitution on the question of presidential term limit does not help the political situation in Burundi. Mr. Nkurunziza’s third term bid risks endangering the fragile peace in the east African nation whose devastating 12-year civil war ended in 2005.
For Ethiopia and Togo, the outcomes are a forgone conclusion: the opposition in Togo know president Faure Gnassingbe will beat them in March while the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) party in Ethiopia will maintain its strong grip on power after the parliamentary elections in May. Elections in the other countries– Benin, Chad, Comoros, Egypt, Lesotho, Tanzania and Sudan– will also worth watching. Somaliland, which is yet to be accorded international recognition, may as well go to the polls this year. Parliamentary elections in Egypt in March will be a test case for President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s commitment to democracy or the lack of it in the North African country since the controversial imprisonment of a team of Al Jazeera journalists. Low voter turnout at Egypt’s presidential elections in May of last year had cast a shadow over the legitimacy of President Sisi who rose to power after toppling the country’s president. Sisi now has an opportunity to redeem his image by overseeing peaceful and credible parliamentary elections. President Sisi is however a comfortable man. He has the unwavering support of his western allies particularly the US which sees Egypt as a strategic ally in the so called war on terror. US development aid and military assistance to Egypt are not tied to preconditions such as human rights, but rather on Cairo’s ability to keep a lid, on behalf of Washington, on terrorist and extremist groups in the region that may pose a threat to US interests or those of its allies. Ethiopia joins Egypt in enjoying this privilege of being Washington’s staunch allies. Egypt and Ethiopia are seen as the epitome of the double standards of US foreign policy. Washington does not consider human rights for aid to the two African countries as they are indispensable allies in Washington’s so called war on terror.
Moving on with the in tray of 2015 for Africa, the African Union will, as usual, hold its annual summit. Scheduled for 23rd to 31st January in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, this year’s summit is centered on the theme “Year of Women’s Empowerment and Development towards Africa’s Agenda 2063”. The summit of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government, the highest decision-making organ of the African Union, sets the Union’s broad political and policy agenda for the year. This year, insecurity and conflict in Nigeria, DR. Congo, Central African Republic, South Sudan, the perennial conflict in Somalia, and the ongoing Ebola virus disease in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia should be among the items on the agenda of the summit if African leaders are serious about helping the people they govern. The ongoing political and security crises in Libya have an international element and will be left mainly to the international community to grapple with. While the AU may want to play an active role in the situation in Libya, it can do nothing more than mediation.
Some AU member states remain concerned about the work of the International Criminal Court (ICC) on the continent. The AU and some of its member states have accused the ICC of political witch-hunt and of pursuing a western-backed neocolonial agenda against African leaders. This charge arose out of the fact that all the cases before the Hague-based court are from Africa. The ICC has consistently dismissed the allegations as baseless and says it is an impartial and independent court committed to fighting impunity in relation to international crimes. There is a lack of consensus among African states as to what constitutes an adequate and appropriate response to perceived biases of the court. However, some states are determined to push for mass withdrawals from the court’s jurisdiction at the upcoming summit. It remains to be seen whether their wish will get a slot on the summit’s agenda.
Illegal immigration from Africa to Europe will continue to occupy the news agenda. All attempts by African countries and the European Union to stem the menace will do little, if anything, to impact on the current trend. Push factors: unemployment and poverty, repressive regimes and conflicts— in immigrants’ countries of origin remain real and telling. Last year alone, at least 3,000 people lost their lives while attempting to make the perilous journey across the Sahel, the Sahara desert and the Mediterranean Sea. The mounting death toll and the shocking stories of survivors will do little to deter those who are desperate to escape persecution, war, unemployment and poverty.
The October polls will be Ivory Coast’s first presidential election since the disputed polls of November 2010 which led to widespread violence and the eventual removal of the then president Laurent Gbagbo. The task will be to hold a free and fair election without a repeat of the post-election violence we saw in 2010/2011. For Burkina Faso, the polls scheduled for November will be the first since the overthrow of the country’s military dictator Blaise Compaore in a popular uprising in October last year. Burkina Faso has been mostly under military rule since gaining independence from France in 1960. The tens of thousands of Burkinabe, who thronged the streets of Ouagadougou to oust Mr. Compaore, will be watching closely to ensure that their revolution is not stolen at the polls.
The presidential election in Guinea will be the first since the election of president Alpha Conde in November 2010 which ended military rule in the West African country. Insecurity, a broken economy and the Ebola virus disease have posed great challenges to the leadership in Conakry. South Sudan, a country still mired in war and political impasse, will face a mountain of hurdles in its bid to hold general elections in July. Corruption, tribalism and nepotism coupled with political rivalry between President Salva Kiir and the then vice president (now rebel leader) Riek Machar, culminated in civil war in December 2013. Since then, war and food shortage have threatened the very existence of Africa’s youngest nation. The main challenge at the polls in July will be to conduct free and fair elections that will be accepted by the two archrivals— president Kiir and armed opposition figure Mr. Machar.
President Goodluck Jonathan of Nigeria has failed to rein in a violent extremist insurgency which threatens to not only end his political career, but also destabilize and eventually break up the Nigerian state. Jonathan has elbowed his neighbours and looked to foreign powers for help. He has found worthy but insufficient support in the United States, the United Kingdom and France which, together with other countries, have given military and security assistance to not only find Nigeria’s missing girls but also advise on how to defeat the Boko Haram insurgents. Their efforts have not produced any tangible results thus far. President Jonathan’s political survival will be at stake at the polls. Youth unemployment, economic inequality and Bokom Haram insurgency will be largely to blame if Jonathan is defeated at the polls. The election is a two-horse race pitching the incumbent Goodluck Jonathan of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) against the former military ruler Muhammadu Buhari of the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC). Whoever wins the election will inherit the twin evils– insecurity and corruption– which have been bedeviling Nigeria for a long time.
The nightmare for all stakeholders is the general elections in the Central African Republic slated for August, but with no date in sight—no surprise given the ongoing conflict in the country. The elections are a desperate attempt at turning around the country’s political crisis which is the root cause of the ongoing conflict. Any miscalculations in the elections would risk renewed tensions and escalation in conflict in the central African nation.
With the support of leaders of the East African sub-region, President Pierre Nkurunziza of Burundi is likely to have his way in his controversial bid for a term in office. The ambiguity of the 2005 Constitution on the question of presidential term limit does not help the political situation in Burundi. Mr. Nkurunziza’s third term bid risks endangering the fragile peace in the east African nation whose devastating 12-year civil war ended in 2005.
For Ethiopia and Togo, the outcomes are a forgone conclusion: the opposition in Togo know president Faure Gnassingbe will beat them in March while the ruling Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) party in Ethiopia will maintain its strong grip on power after the parliamentary elections in May. Elections in the other countries– Benin, Chad, Comoros, Egypt, Lesotho, Tanzania and Sudan– will also worth watching. Somaliland, which is yet to be accorded international recognition, may as well go to the polls this year. Parliamentary elections in Egypt in March will be a test case for President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi’s commitment to democracy or the lack of it in the North African country since the controversial imprisonment of a team of Al Jazeera journalists. Low voter turnout at Egypt’s presidential elections in May of last year had cast a shadow over the legitimacy of President Sisi who rose to power after toppling the country’s president. Sisi now has an opportunity to redeem his image by overseeing peaceful and credible parliamentary elections. President Sisi is however a comfortable man. He has the unwavering support of his western allies particularly the US which sees Egypt as a strategic ally in the so called war on terror. US development aid and military assistance to Egypt are not tied to preconditions such as human rights, but rather on Cairo’s ability to keep a lid, on behalf of Washington, on terrorist and extremist groups in the region that may pose a threat to US interests or those of its allies. Ethiopia joins Egypt in enjoying this privilege of being Washington’s staunch allies. Egypt and Ethiopia are seen as the epitome of the double standards of US foreign policy. Washington does not consider human rights for aid to the two African countries as they are indispensable allies in Washington’s so called war on terror.
Moving on with the in tray of 2015 for Africa, the African Union will, as usual, hold its annual summit. Scheduled for 23rd to 31st January in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, this year’s summit is centered on the theme “Year of Women’s Empowerment and Development towards Africa’s Agenda 2063”. The summit of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government, the highest decision-making organ of the African Union, sets the Union’s broad political and policy agenda for the year. This year, insecurity and conflict in Nigeria, DR. Congo, Central African Republic, South Sudan, the perennial conflict in Somalia, and the ongoing Ebola virus disease in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia should be among the items on the agenda of the summit if African leaders are serious about helping the people they govern. The ongoing political and security crises in Libya have an international element and will be left mainly to the international community to grapple with. While the AU may want to play an active role in the situation in Libya, it can do nothing more than mediation.
Some AU member states remain concerned about the work of the International Criminal Court (ICC) on the continent. The AU and some of its member states have accused the ICC of political witch-hunt and of pursuing a western-backed neocolonial agenda against African leaders. This charge arose out of the fact that all the cases before the Hague-based court are from Africa. The ICC has consistently dismissed the allegations as baseless and says it is an impartial and independent court committed to fighting impunity in relation to international crimes. There is a lack of consensus among African states as to what constitutes an adequate and appropriate response to perceived biases of the court. However, some states are determined to push for mass withdrawals from the court’s jurisdiction at the upcoming summit. It remains to be seen whether their wish will get a slot on the summit’s agenda.
Illegal immigration from Africa to Europe will continue to occupy the news agenda. All attempts by African countries and the European Union to stem the menace will do little, if anything, to impact on the current trend. Push factors: unemployment and poverty, repressive regimes and conflicts— in immigrants’ countries of origin remain real and telling. Last year alone, at least 3,000 people lost their lives while attempting to make the perilous journey across the Sahel, the Sahara desert and the Mediterranean Sea. The mounting death toll and the shocking stories of survivors will do little to deter those who are desperate to escape persecution, war, unemployment and poverty.