There is more to the Nigerian elections than just casting votes for the next president of the Federal Republic. After 16 years of civilian rule, Africa’s most populous nation is going through many challenges. Nigeria has come close to being a failed state despite its massive oil wealth and a large army.
President Goodluck; Nigeria's Bad Luck
President Goodluck Jonathan has failed to contain a violent extremist insurgency that threatens to not only end his political career, but also destabilize and eventually break up the Nigerian state. Jonathan had elbowed his neighbors and looked to foreign powers for help. He has found worthy but insufficient support in the United States, Britain and France which, together with other countries, have given military and security assistance to not only find the more than 200 missing schoolgirls — who were abducted by Boko Haram in April 2014 — but also advise on how to defeat the Boko Haram insurgents. Their efforts have not produced any tangible results thus far.
President Jonathan’s political survival will be at stake when the estimated 69 million registered voters head to the polls this morning. If he is defeated, youth unemployment, economic inequality and the Boko Haram insurgency will be largely to blame. The recent military gains against Boko Haram are largely due to a concerted and unrelenting military campaign by Nigeria’s neighbors. Despite this, President Jonathan has taken credit for having the insurgents on their back foot. He hopes this will help his bid for re-election.
The Race
The election is a two-horse race pitting the incumbent president, of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), against the former military ruler, Muhammadu Buhari, who hails from the All Progressives Congress (APC). The two men are no strangers to Nigerians. While Buhari was accused of gross human rights violations during his tenure as military ruler, Jonathan’s presidency has been marred by his apparent lack of control over official corruption and his failure to mount credible military pressure against Boko Haram. Whoever wins the election will inherit the twin evils: insecurity and corruption — which have been bedeviling Nigeria for a long time. The loser will have to retire from high level partisan politics. This makes it look like a do or die affair. But the stakes are higher than just the political survival of the leading presidential candidates.
International Engagements
The International Criminal Court (ICC) is keeping an eye on developments in Nigeria. On March 16, the Prosecutor at the ICC issued a statement – the second in two months – calling on all sides to “refrain from violence” and warning that anyone who commits crimes that fall within the jurisdiction of the court will be prosecuted.
Earlier this week, US President Barack Obama, addressed the people of Nigeria in a televised message and stressed the need for the elections to be “free, fair and peaceful”. Mr Obama called on candidates to emphasize to their supporters that “violence has no place in democratic elections…” He called for peace and national unity irrespective of who wins.
Nigerians would hope that president Obama’s message and a previous visit by Secretary of State Kerry would be considerable pressure on politicians to keep the peace during and after the polls.
Nigeria is a key player in the international oil market. On Thursday, oil prices increased 5 percent in reaction to the Saudi-led air strikes on Shia Houthi rebels in Yemen. The international community must be concerned that any post-election violence in Nigeria could drive oil prices even further.
Regional and international election observers and journalists will flood across the length and breadth of the country to witness the polls.
Peace and Security Concerns
The most immediate concern is violence during and after the polls. Boko Haram has threatened to disrupt the polls. The extremist group is notorious for indiscriminate bombings, massacre, rape, kidnapping, looting and arson. It is almost a cliché to say that however tight security maybe, Boko Haram will still take some innocent lives. However, the terrorist group is NOT the only threat to peace and security this time.
The run up to the polls had seen a deeply polarized political campaign as the two main political parties canvassed for votes. The signing of a peace accord between the PDP and the APC on March 26 has, to an extent, sought to allay fears of the loser unleashing violence to protest his defeat. Another peace pact was signed by all the presidential candidates in January. Even at that, peace accords may not help the situation. In order to prevent or minimize post-election violence, the election must not only be said to be free and fair but must be seen to be free and fair. The stakes are high.
Given the highly polarized political landscape and the political temperature which has increased following the six-week postponement of the polls, a mere rejection of the election results by one of the two main political parties, may be construed by their supporters as a call to violence.
Nigeria cannot afford to fail or descend into chaos. The country’s sheer size and population loom menacingly over the sub region. Any widespread violence or persistent political crisis in the wake of the polls will have devastating impacts on Nigeria’s neighbors. Either scenario will also give Boko Haram the opportunity to regroup and rearm.
It remains to be seen whether the peace accords and the statement of the ICC’s Prosecutor will be adhered to by all sides to the election – one of the most tightly contested in Nigeria’s history.
President Goodluck; Nigeria's Bad Luck
President Goodluck Jonathan has failed to contain a violent extremist insurgency that threatens to not only end his political career, but also destabilize and eventually break up the Nigerian state. Jonathan had elbowed his neighbors and looked to foreign powers for help. He has found worthy but insufficient support in the United States, Britain and France which, together with other countries, have given military and security assistance to not only find the more than 200 missing schoolgirls — who were abducted by Boko Haram in April 2014 — but also advise on how to defeat the Boko Haram insurgents. Their efforts have not produced any tangible results thus far.
President Jonathan’s political survival will be at stake when the estimated 69 million registered voters head to the polls this morning. If he is defeated, youth unemployment, economic inequality and the Boko Haram insurgency will be largely to blame. The recent military gains against Boko Haram are largely due to a concerted and unrelenting military campaign by Nigeria’s neighbors. Despite this, President Jonathan has taken credit for having the insurgents on their back foot. He hopes this will help his bid for re-election.
The Race
The election is a two-horse race pitting the incumbent president, of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), against the former military ruler, Muhammadu Buhari, who hails from the All Progressives Congress (APC). The two men are no strangers to Nigerians. While Buhari was accused of gross human rights violations during his tenure as military ruler, Jonathan’s presidency has been marred by his apparent lack of control over official corruption and his failure to mount credible military pressure against Boko Haram. Whoever wins the election will inherit the twin evils: insecurity and corruption — which have been bedeviling Nigeria for a long time. The loser will have to retire from high level partisan politics. This makes it look like a do or die affair. But the stakes are higher than just the political survival of the leading presidential candidates.
International Engagements
The International Criminal Court (ICC) is keeping an eye on developments in Nigeria. On March 16, the Prosecutor at the ICC issued a statement – the second in two months – calling on all sides to “refrain from violence” and warning that anyone who commits crimes that fall within the jurisdiction of the court will be prosecuted.
Earlier this week, US President Barack Obama, addressed the people of Nigeria in a televised message and stressed the need for the elections to be “free, fair and peaceful”. Mr Obama called on candidates to emphasize to their supporters that “violence has no place in democratic elections…” He called for peace and national unity irrespective of who wins.
Nigerians would hope that president Obama’s message and a previous visit by Secretary of State Kerry would be considerable pressure on politicians to keep the peace during and after the polls.
Nigeria is a key player in the international oil market. On Thursday, oil prices increased 5 percent in reaction to the Saudi-led air strikes on Shia Houthi rebels in Yemen. The international community must be concerned that any post-election violence in Nigeria could drive oil prices even further.
Regional and international election observers and journalists will flood across the length and breadth of the country to witness the polls.
Peace and Security Concerns
The most immediate concern is violence during and after the polls. Boko Haram has threatened to disrupt the polls. The extremist group is notorious for indiscriminate bombings, massacre, rape, kidnapping, looting and arson. It is almost a cliché to say that however tight security maybe, Boko Haram will still take some innocent lives. However, the terrorist group is NOT the only threat to peace and security this time.
The run up to the polls had seen a deeply polarized political campaign as the two main political parties canvassed for votes. The signing of a peace accord between the PDP and the APC on March 26 has, to an extent, sought to allay fears of the loser unleashing violence to protest his defeat. Another peace pact was signed by all the presidential candidates in January. Even at that, peace accords may not help the situation. In order to prevent or minimize post-election violence, the election must not only be said to be free and fair but must be seen to be free and fair. The stakes are high.
Given the highly polarized political landscape and the political temperature which has increased following the six-week postponement of the polls, a mere rejection of the election results by one of the two main political parties, may be construed by their supporters as a call to violence.
Nigeria cannot afford to fail or descend into chaos. The country’s sheer size and population loom menacingly over the sub region. Any widespread violence or persistent political crisis in the wake of the polls will have devastating impacts on Nigeria’s neighbors. Either scenario will also give Boko Haram the opportunity to regroup and rearm.
It remains to be seen whether the peace accords and the statement of the ICC’s Prosecutor will be adhered to by all sides to the election – one of the most tightly contested in Nigeria’s history.