Saturday March 15 marked three years since the Arab spring entered Syria. Three years on there is still no end in sight to the carnage and the untold human suffering that have become the hallmark of the Syrian uprising. Neither Assad nor the armed opposition is winning the war.
The Arab spring might as well be called the Arab Spark. When a young man in Tunisia set himself on fire in December 2010, he could not imagine that his act of Self-immolation will bring down the more than two decade rule of Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia within two months. The spring swept through the Arab world with an unprecedented speed and success. The strong man of Egypt Mubarak fell with a relatively limited bloodshed, thus opening the door for more pro-reform and pro-democracy movements to demand more than just rigged periodic elections from their governments.
Inspired by the successes of the Arab spring in Tunisia and Egypt, the people of Bahrain started their own spring in February 2011. Many laid down their lives in Manama as protestors were determined to achieve substantial change, if not outright topple the Monarchy with King Hamad at its helm. Faced with growing protests and disaffection, the government made symbolic concession in November 2011 by agreeing with human rights groups that excessive force was been used on protestors. With the help of Saudi Arabia, King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifah was able to roll back the spring from his Kingdom. The spring never took root in Bahrain even though the season may return to that Island anytime.
Yemen has been on the international security radar for some time due to the presence of Al-Qaeda elements and other rebel groups in that country. The authorities in Sanaa have had their army fight seemingly never ending war of attrition against armed groups. The arrival of the Arab spring in Yemen was just another addition to the troubles in the in tray of President Saleh’s government. Anyone who thought Yemeni strongman would throw in the towel after a rocket attack on him would have been dreaming. President Saleh returned to Yemen after his medical treatment in Saud Arabia and stayed put against the harsh weather of the Arab spring in his country until November 2011 when he gave into the breeze of the spring. The success in Yemen was sure to inspire others in the Arab world to do the same.
In February 2011, the Arab spring entered a hot “summer” in Libya. Protests which started in the eastern city of Benghazi swept through other cities thus forcing Colonel Muammar Gaddafi to summon all his powers and forces to respond to the disturbances by “cockroaches”. None of them will be spared for taking up arms against the “constitution”; Gaddafi threatened even though his country had no constitution at all. After 42 years of uninterrupted one man rule, Gaddafi was deeply entrenched in Libyan soil.
It was to take about two months of bloody war and a March 2011 UN Security Council Resolution which saw the military machine of NATO deployed to tip the balance in favour Gaddafi’s “cockroaches”. The spring in Libya was costly in men, money and material. It took 18 NATO member states, thousands of lives and limbs of Libyans as well as countless millions of dollars to wipe Gaddafi from the face of the earth.
The toothless African Union (AU) had a sharp eye and was able to see the end of Gaddafi. As such the AU took a collective decision in August 2011 to recognize the opposition’s National Transnational Council as the new government of Libya. This political recognition by the African Union shocked the Colonel in Tripoli who had dreamed of being the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the African Union whenever such a dream army was built. True, Colonel Gaddafi had spent a lot of his country’s petrodollars on the African Union. Gaddafi could not imagine that the very organization that he had funded for so long would turn against him.
By the time he was killed on October 20, Colonel Gaddafi had left a long trail of devastation which the current government in Tripoli has barely begun to clean. NATO was left counting the cost in billions of US dollars.
The opposition is Syria hoped their March 2011 spring would enjoy UN Security Council backing just like in Libya. As the armed confrontation between the various armed factions and Assad’s forces staggered on, the opposition realized that Security Council politics would not favour them. The armed oppositions were left to endure their spring.
Draft resolution after draft resolution got vetoed by Assad backers in Moscow and Beijing. Even the use of chemical weapons in 2013 did not convince Russia and China that a UN Security Council Resolution under chapter 7 of the UN Charter was necessary. Russia smartly averted an imminent unilateral military strike by Washington when Putin convinced Obama that disarming Syria of chemical weapons was better than military action. Over the past three years, a concoction of fighters has entered Syria to take part in that country’s war. Al-Qaeda, Hezbollah, Iranian Special Forces and many other elements have all added to the already messy and intractable conflict in Syria. Western powers such as the France, Britain and the United States as well as Saudi Arabia and Qatar continue to lend their support to the “moderate armed opposition”. On the other hand, Iranian and Russian resources continue to arrive in Damascus in support of the Assad regime. All the ingredients appear to be in place for an even more protracted war in Syria; a war in which the unarmed civil population continue to bear the brunt. One is left wondering for how long the innocent Syrian children, women and men shall continue to pay the price that they cannot afford.
Kofi Anna’s efforts on behalf of the United Nations and the Arab League proofed futile. Ambassador Lakhdar Brahimi has taken over from where Mr. Annan left off, but little progress has thus far been made. The hope of the of the international community and more importantly the hopes of the Syrian people were all put in the Geneva talks which have so far not delivered tangible results.
While the Security Council remains deadlocked over Syria, statistics coming out of that country make some grim reading. Over all, about 9 million people are displaced, more than 2.5 million of them refugees across Syrian borders, at least 150, 000 dead including over 10, 000 children. The Arab Spring in Syria has turned to a chilly and deadly winter. The sooner “summer” comes, the better for Syria.
The Arab spring might as well be called the Arab Spark. When a young man in Tunisia set himself on fire in December 2010, he could not imagine that his act of Self-immolation will bring down the more than two decade rule of Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia within two months. The spring swept through the Arab world with an unprecedented speed and success. The strong man of Egypt Mubarak fell with a relatively limited bloodshed, thus opening the door for more pro-reform and pro-democracy movements to demand more than just rigged periodic elections from their governments.
Inspired by the successes of the Arab spring in Tunisia and Egypt, the people of Bahrain started their own spring in February 2011. Many laid down their lives in Manama as protestors were determined to achieve substantial change, if not outright topple the Monarchy with King Hamad at its helm. Faced with growing protests and disaffection, the government made symbolic concession in November 2011 by agreeing with human rights groups that excessive force was been used on protestors. With the help of Saudi Arabia, King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifah was able to roll back the spring from his Kingdom. The spring never took root in Bahrain even though the season may return to that Island anytime.
Yemen has been on the international security radar for some time due to the presence of Al-Qaeda elements and other rebel groups in that country. The authorities in Sanaa have had their army fight seemingly never ending war of attrition against armed groups. The arrival of the Arab spring in Yemen was just another addition to the troubles in the in tray of President Saleh’s government. Anyone who thought Yemeni strongman would throw in the towel after a rocket attack on him would have been dreaming. President Saleh returned to Yemen after his medical treatment in Saud Arabia and stayed put against the harsh weather of the Arab spring in his country until November 2011 when he gave into the breeze of the spring. The success in Yemen was sure to inspire others in the Arab world to do the same.
In February 2011, the Arab spring entered a hot “summer” in Libya. Protests which started in the eastern city of Benghazi swept through other cities thus forcing Colonel Muammar Gaddafi to summon all his powers and forces to respond to the disturbances by “cockroaches”. None of them will be spared for taking up arms against the “constitution”; Gaddafi threatened even though his country had no constitution at all. After 42 years of uninterrupted one man rule, Gaddafi was deeply entrenched in Libyan soil.
It was to take about two months of bloody war and a March 2011 UN Security Council Resolution which saw the military machine of NATO deployed to tip the balance in favour Gaddafi’s “cockroaches”. The spring in Libya was costly in men, money and material. It took 18 NATO member states, thousands of lives and limbs of Libyans as well as countless millions of dollars to wipe Gaddafi from the face of the earth.
The toothless African Union (AU) had a sharp eye and was able to see the end of Gaddafi. As such the AU took a collective decision in August 2011 to recognize the opposition’s National Transnational Council as the new government of Libya. This political recognition by the African Union shocked the Colonel in Tripoli who had dreamed of being the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the African Union whenever such a dream army was built. True, Colonel Gaddafi had spent a lot of his country’s petrodollars on the African Union. Gaddafi could not imagine that the very organization that he had funded for so long would turn against him.
By the time he was killed on October 20, Colonel Gaddafi had left a long trail of devastation which the current government in Tripoli has barely begun to clean. NATO was left counting the cost in billions of US dollars.
The opposition is Syria hoped their March 2011 spring would enjoy UN Security Council backing just like in Libya. As the armed confrontation between the various armed factions and Assad’s forces staggered on, the opposition realized that Security Council politics would not favour them. The armed oppositions were left to endure their spring.
Draft resolution after draft resolution got vetoed by Assad backers in Moscow and Beijing. Even the use of chemical weapons in 2013 did not convince Russia and China that a UN Security Council Resolution under chapter 7 of the UN Charter was necessary. Russia smartly averted an imminent unilateral military strike by Washington when Putin convinced Obama that disarming Syria of chemical weapons was better than military action. Over the past three years, a concoction of fighters has entered Syria to take part in that country’s war. Al-Qaeda, Hezbollah, Iranian Special Forces and many other elements have all added to the already messy and intractable conflict in Syria. Western powers such as the France, Britain and the United States as well as Saudi Arabia and Qatar continue to lend their support to the “moderate armed opposition”. On the other hand, Iranian and Russian resources continue to arrive in Damascus in support of the Assad regime. All the ingredients appear to be in place for an even more protracted war in Syria; a war in which the unarmed civil population continue to bear the brunt. One is left wondering for how long the innocent Syrian children, women and men shall continue to pay the price that they cannot afford.
Kofi Anna’s efforts on behalf of the United Nations and the Arab League proofed futile. Ambassador Lakhdar Brahimi has taken over from where Mr. Annan left off, but little progress has thus far been made. The hope of the of the international community and more importantly the hopes of the Syrian people were all put in the Geneva talks which have so far not delivered tangible results.
While the Security Council remains deadlocked over Syria, statistics coming out of that country make some grim reading. Over all, about 9 million people are displaced, more than 2.5 million of them refugees across Syrian borders, at least 150, 000 dead including over 10, 000 children. The Arab Spring in Syria has turned to a chilly and deadly winter. The sooner “summer” comes, the better for Syria.